2024 01 21
Portrait of a participant at a Beer & Cameras event I hosted at my See You Soon studio. Novermber 12, 2023. © Clayton Hauck
*Warning: Political Content*
While I have no idea how this upcoming political election will play out, other than it being an unbearable experience for most of us, I wanted to air some thoughts on the topic.
Preface: Local politics have vastly more impact to most of us and are surprisingly easy to get involved in and make a difference. Of course, they are also wildly boring and therefor almost universally ignored. On that note, let’s chat about the Big Ticket Item, the president of the United States!
One angle that I think gets mostly forgotten or overlooked in US political discourse is: things change. Both the Democratic and Republican parties were vastly different not that long ago as they are made up of varying coalition of groups, interests, rich people, corporations, etc. My skrewball vision over the last few years is that we’d soon see the rise of a third viable party in this country — which would be a progressive/socialist party fueled by the anger of young, disenfranchised, and “left behind” voters — while the traditional conservative strong-government stability-rules types would side with an increasingly-conservative Democratic party (mostly because they still have the old power structures firmly in place) and the MAGA burn-the-system folks would complete their takeover of the Republican party.
While I have no love for Trump or the party he has commandeered, one thing I give Republicans credit for is having a bit of flexibility. Most of us had no confidence that Trump would actually win the nomination and become president. Even after he demolished the competition, debate after debate, we thought surely there would be something to stop this mess from happening. The same thing was playing out on the other side and that’s exactly what did happen! The Dems, terrified of losing their grip on the levers of power to an unknown, Independent entity named Bernie, used all their sway to make sure he didn’t take control away from them like Obama had done eight years prior. These two decisions: the GOP deciding to listen to voters and the Dems doing their best to ignore them, is likely what gave Trump the victory. If it does not bend, it will break.
So what happens next? Apparently the Supreme Court (which Trump largely installed) will tell us in the coming weeks after they decide whether states get to decide who goes on the ballot. You know, typical democracy will-of-the-voters stuff!
The political landscape of this country has shifted before and it is currently shifting again. How it ends nobody yet knows, but the parties that largely control our political destiny will not be the same as they are now forever.
I’m linking below a recent video from my favorite geopolitics writer Peter Zeihan which I think does a nice job (although I disagree with him that Trump can’t win) summing up how things have changed, might play out, and surely will get even weirder.
Vote!
-Clayton
